On the heels of this incredibly small batch which, incidentally, had a couple sets of twins, I had to redo my numbers. It’s the first time in a while that I had to start “tinkering” with my formulas. I have had to come up with 3 possible guesses. One based on the information and pace they have been moving at for most of 2010, another based on the tiny little batch they just did, and then I did an average of the 2.
So, based on the 3 unscientific methods of number crunching, here are my 3 guesstimates for the cut-off of the next group of referrals:
Based on the tiny batch: May 26 will be the next cutoff
Based on the previous batches of 2010: May 30 will be the next cutoff
Based on the average of the two: May 29 will be the next cutoff
I’m not even going to attempt to guess as to what I really think will be the cut-off date. They have used the last batches of the year to make significant slowdowns in the past and this could be another slowdown. Then again, they could surprise me and pick the pace back up. This last batch could have been a fluke based on the fact that last month’s batch was larger than average. When you look at that, it’s entirely possible that the two average each other out and, if that’s the case; we’re still looking at a late February referral.
And, as of today, we’ve been waiting 1,567 days.
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